Russia has set off an unprecedented upsurge of retaining Putin, and it is suspected that there is a conspiracy.

　　On October 18th, in Moscow, the Russian capital, Russian President Vladimir Putin listened to people’s questions during the program. Xinhua news agency

　　　　In recent weeks, there has been a wave of support for Putin to stay as president after 2008 throughout Russia. For a time, people gathered to beg, officials expressed their hopes, and political parties made suggestions, demanding that Putin stay in office. The Russian "News Times" article said with emotion: "Before, such a request was not unheard of, but it did not have the current scale and popularity. The number of people involved in this activity and the wide geographical area are inevitably suspicious: is this premeditated? " After the Russian presidential election next year, there have been many versions of predictions on what role Putin will continue to play in the political arena, what influence he will play, and what scope he will play. Putin himself has repeatedly made it clear that he will not seek re-election. Can Putin be retained by the wave of retention that is now higher than the wave? What is behind it, and the parties have given different interpretations.

　　The number of people involved and the geographical scope are unprecedented.

　　　　According to the Russian "Viewpoint" reported on November 11th, a youth organization in Moscow held a series of activities such as assembly and party on November 10th, and they planned to collect millions of signatures within one month to support Putin’s staying in office. Their slogan is: "Support Putin! Support a unified Russia! " Its member Arthur? Savilov said that they would try their best to find a good way for Putin to bypass the constitutional provisions. "We will do our best to make President Putin change his mind and stay in office.". When asked about the limitations of the Constitution, Savilov replied, "What is the Constitution? The constitution was formulated by the people. This constitution was adopted in 1993. Now how many years have passed and the country’s situation has undergone earth-shaking changes. "

　　　　Russia’s Kommersant published an article entitled "Supporting Putin Movement to Become an All-Russian Movement" on November 9. The article said that in recent days, the All-Russian Social Movement "Supporting Putin" organization planned to hold a meeting and asked Putin to stay in office. On November 15, there are still some areas in Russia that are ready to hold a rally in support of Putin. It is also reported that from October 23 to 30, similar gatherings were held in major cities such as Volgograd, Grozny, Pskov, Novosibirsk and Magadan. In the Ural Federal District, within one day, three local councils passed an appeal for Putin to remain in power.

　　　　Many Russian officials have also joined in retaining Putin. Chechen President Kadyrov said, "If Russia is to maintain its current stable development and become a world power again, Putin should continue to be the president. Since the presidents of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and other countries can serve for life, why not Russia? " Kadyrov made no secret of his admiration for Putin. He said, "Putin is a hero who saved Chechnya and gave the Chechen people a second life. He also saved Russia. He is a gift from God to Russia. " Mironov, chairman of the Russian Federation Council (upper house), publicly stated that "Russian President Vladimir Putin should find a way to keep him as president after the expiration of his presidency in 2008, because the Russian people want him to stay". According to the latest poll released by the Levada Polling Center, 53% of the respondents said that they "welcome or welcome" Putin for another term, up by 12 percentage points from 2005. The Russian Constitution stipulates that "the same person shall not serve as President of the Russian Federation for more than two consecutive times". According to the current constitution, Putin will officially leave the presidency in May 2008.

　　Whether to stay in office involves the interests of all parties.

　　　　Putin’s supporters stressed that under Putin’s leadership, Russia ended the chaotic situation since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, achieved rapid economic growth and restored its international prestige. They insisted that the reason why they stayed was their heartfelt love for Putin and for the future of Russia. Observers have interpreted this wave from different angles. The British "Guardian" analyzed that many political advisers of Putin were extremely worried that if the "boss (Putin)" finally left the Kremlin, they would lose power, so they tried their best to encourage the people to launch a campaign to retain Putin.

　　　　Others believe that this move is an effort by the "United Russia" party to enhance its influence before the election of the Russian State Duma (lower house) in December. Last month, Putin made it clear that he would participate in parliamentary elections as the candidate of Russia’s largest party. There are also some opponents who criticize that Putin has once again set off a cult of personality. Opposition leader nemtsov said: "I like the saying’ Russia without Putin’, although it is unrealistic."

　　　　Vinogradov, director of the Russian Center for Research on Political Trends, believes that the holding of "spontaneous" gatherings and the appearance of local council petitions do have traces of meticulous organization. He said: "This is to strengthen Putin’s position after the election of the Russian State Duma (lower house). But at present, it seems unlikely to continue for the third term. " Konovalov, director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Evaluation, said: "This should be regarded as the pressure of Russian bureaucratic groups on Putin. I am convinced that Putin actually wants to leave. Indeed, he was confused about his future plans, first talking about the post of prime minister, and then withdrawing his remarks. He has no definite plan yet. The pressure on Putin will continue in the future, because whether he stays in office involves the personal interests of many political elites. " Ding Peihua, director of the Eurasian Development Office of the Eurasian Institute of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the Global Times that Putin has always had a high popularity among the Russian people, and the recent wave of people retaining Putin is only one of the manifestations. He believes that it is inevitable for the Russian people to support Putin. The support of the masses for Putin should still be within a reasonable range.

　　Putin will become the spiritual leader of Russia?

　　　　The Star newspaper in Toronto, Canada, reported on November 12th that the whole country in Russia is now more concerned about how to let Putin stay, but so far, Putin has only said a few words about whether to stay or not, which also makes Putin’s whereabouts after 2008 become a suspense of the whole world. On October 26th, when Putin attended the Russia-EU summit in Portugal, he said that he would not amend the constitution for the sake of three presidents and would not weaken the power of the president, and denied that he might become the prime minister after leaving office.

　　　　Russia’s new network published an article entitled "Putin will become the spiritual leader of Russia" on November 9, and made an in-depth analysis of Putin’s whereabouts. The article said, "Putin has been re-elected as president for two times, and it is very difficult to surpass himself. To be re-elected as the third president in violation of the constitution is to openly regard the constitution as a dummy, which is contrary to Putin’s political philosophy; It is Putin’s fault to advance the presidential election or to be the first prime minister and then the president. Being the prime minister, overhead the president, and replacing the presidential system with the government-parliament power structure is actually a disguised coup, and Putin’s painstaking plan of governing the country will be destroyed, so the above plan should not be considered by Putin. " The article analyzes that if you want to know where Putin will go after leaving office, you must first know what Putin wants to do. Now it can be clearly said that Putin’s minimum program is to ensure the continuity of current policies, that is, to ensure the long-term implementation, implementation and implementation of Putin’s concept of governing the country; The highest program is to realize the comprehensive rejuvenation of Russia.

　　　　The article believes that with Putin’s consistent style, he will not seek the highest administrative power again (even if he has this idea, he must abide by the Constitution and go out again after 2012). He wants to be the de facto spiritual leader of Russia. In this way, firstly, Putin’s existence itself is a constraint on "secular" administrative and legislative power, because "Putin’s concept of governing the country" is the ruling basis of his successors; Second, Putin will have the absolute right to interpret this concept of governing the country.

　　　　Putin’s latest statement seems to prove once again his idea of not seeking re-election, but ensuring influence. According to Agence France-Presse, Putin said on November 13 that if the "United Russia" party wins the election on December 2, it will have a moral reason to continue to maintain its influence on this country. The report quoted Putin as saying: "If people vote for the’ United Russia’ party, it means that they trust me, then I will also have the moral right and have the responsibility to push the Duma and the cabinet to complete our established tasks." The report mentioned that Putin repeatedly hinted that he would continue to retain an important role in politics, but he refused to explain how to retain a role. Putin said: "So far, I won’t give a clear answer, but all kinds of possibilities exist."

　　Is the next president strong or weak?

　　　　Since Putin will not stay in office, who will take Putin’s class has become the most concerned topic for Russians. In the first half of this year, there was a rumor in Russia that Putin would appoint a new prime minister this autumn, and this new prime minister would definitely be Putin’s "successor". However, when people found that the new prime minister turned out to be the previously unknown Zubcov, rather than Ivanov or Medvedev, as public opinion had always suspected, they were at a loss again. On November 6th, a poll conducted by the Russian Social Research Center showed that more than half of Russians thought that Putin had decided who would succeed him, and 32% of the respondents thought that Zubcov was the most likely to succeed him as president. However, the answer to this world-wide riddle has not yet been revealed, and various speculations are still going on.

　　　　Some analysts believe that with the approach of the Russian State Duma and presidential elections, Putin has indeed begun to lay out plans for 2008, and the "multi-power center" is likely to be the new power structure left by Putin for Russia. In other words, the future president of Russia may not be as strong as Putin, but will be replaced by a "team." This "team" will achieve the stability of the "multi-power center" through checks and balances among the president, the prime minister, the upper house and the lower house, so as to maintain the stability of the "Putin line."

　　　　In response, Medvedev, the first deputy prime minister of the Russian government, said in a meeting with students from Kazan State University on November 12 that "only when the president has great power can a country like Russia stand among the nations of the world". According to media analysis, Medvedev’s words may mean that the next president will still be a strong president. The political situation in Russia is always so unpredictable. Russian poet Chutchev once described Russia like this: "Russia cannot be understood by reason, nor can it be measured by general standards. There are special things in it." Nevertheless, it is generally believed that no matter how the political situation in Russia changes, the "Putin Line" has become an established national policy for Russia’s future development. (Special correspondent in Russia Guan Qingyuan Special correspondent Yang Jiao Liu Yupeng Reporter Wang Liangliang)

Editor: Li Xiuwei