Crisis Public Relations Economics： How Public Opinion Risk Pushes Up Financing Cost
Text/Zhou Daoxu Director of Financial Security Research Center of Tsinghua University Wudaokou Finance College
Capital market is essentially an information market, and enterprise value is continuously priced in information interaction. When the crisis of public opinion occurs, the sudden change of information environment will trigger the market to re-evaluate the fundamentals of enterprises.
First, the financial transmission mechanism of public opinion shock
The surge in the cost of information verification is the primary transmission channel. When an enterprise is caught in a crisis of public opinion, the market will doubt the authenticity of its information disclosure, and investors need to invest additional resources for due diligence, including consulting financial statements, analyzing industry data, and referring to third-party audit opinions. This extra verification cost will reduce market liquidity and may lead some investors to choose to withdraw from the market because of information asymmetry. At the same time, institutional investors may adjust their investment portfolio to reduce the risk exposure related to the enterprise, thus triggering a further decline in the stock price.
In addition, the intensification of information asymmetry will lead to an increase in the market’s risk premium requirements for enterprises. When faced with information uncertainty, investors often demand higher risk compensation to make up for potential losses. The rise of this risk premium will not only be directly reflected in the decline of the company’s share price, but also affect the financing cost of the company, which will challenge its refinancing ability in the capital market. In extreme cases, enterprises may fall into a liquidity crisis due to the loss of market trust, and even go bankrupt and reorganize.
The dynamic adjustment of credit rating forms the second pressure. In the face of major public opinion crisis, rating agencies usually quickly adjust their credit ratings to reflect the latest market awareness of corporate credit status. However, the adjustment of rating agencies is often characterized by "over-revision", that is, a large downward adjustment in a short period of time to avoid their own reputation risks. This rating adjustment not only affects the debt financing cost of enterprises, but also may trigger a chain reaction in the bond market, leading to sharp fluctuations in bond prices.
The downgrade of credit rating may also trigger the "cross-default" clause in the financial market, that is, some loan or debt agreements of enterprises may stipulate that once the credit rating falls below a certain level, enterprises need to repay debts in advance or provide additional guarantees. This means that enterprises may face sudden cash flow pressure after the public opinion crisis, further aggravating the deterioration of their financial situation. This chain reaction will amplify the market’s concerns about the fundamentals of enterprises, and may even lead enterprises to enter debt restructuring or bankruptcy procedures.
Second, the empirical analysis of typical cases
In April 2020, Luckin Coffee’s self-disclosure of financial fraud caused widespread market panic, which spread to CAR Inc., which belongs to the "Shenzhou Family". Affected by the crisis of investor confidence, CAR Inc.’s share price plummeted by 17.11% on April 8th. The market’s doubts about CAR Inc. focus on the expansion model similar to that of Ruixing, the authenticity of financial data and the joint liability of the major shareholder Lu Zhengyao. At the same time, international rating agencies Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s quickly downgraded CAR Inc.’s credit rating, which further aggravated investors’ panic. This incident shows that in the capital market, the financial transparency and governance structure of enterprises are very important. Once the trust crisis breaks out, it will not only increase the cost of information verification, but also trigger a series of chain reactions such as stock price crash, financing difficulties and credit rating downgrade.
Third, the impact of public opinion risk on different financing channels
1. Bond market
In the bond market, the impact of public opinion risk on credit bonds is particularly significant. For bond investors, the credit status of enterprises is one of the key factors in their decision-making. Negative public opinion events may cause investors to worry about the solvency of enterprises, which in turn will lead to the decline of bond prices and the expansion of credit spreads. For example, after the public opinion of financial fraud or poor management of some enterprises spreads, the credit rating of their bonds may be lowered, which will not only increase the financing cost of enterprises, but also make it more difficult to issue bonds. In addition, public opinion events may also trigger a chain reaction in the bond market, affecting the performance of credit bonds in the whole industry, and even impacting the stability of the bond market.
2. Equity market
In the equity market, public opinion risk will also have a significant impact on the stock price and equity financing cost of enterprises. Investors’ confidence in the enterprise is an important support for the stock price, and negative public opinion may weaken investors’ confidence and lead to a decline in the stock price. At the same time, the cost of equity financing will also rise due to the reassessment of corporate risks by the market. For example, when an enterprise faces public opinion events such as product quality problems or management scandals, investors may demand higher rate of return to compensate for risks, which will directly lead to an increase in the cost of equity financing. In addition, public opinion events may also affect the refinancing ability of enterprises, and may even cause enterprises to lose financing opportunities in the capital market.
3. Bank credit market
Bank credit market is one of the important financing channels for enterprises, and public opinion risk will also have an impact on bank credit. When deciding whether to provide loans to enterprises, banks will comprehensively consider the credit status, operating conditions and market reputation of enterprises. Negative public opinion events may make banks doubt the credit status of enterprises, thus raising the loan interest rate, increasing the collateral requirements or shortening the loan period. For example, when a company has a major negative public opinion, the bank may reassess the loan risk of the company and adopt a more cautious credit policy. This will not only increase the financing cost of enterprises, but also limit the liquidity of enterprises and affect the normal operation of enterprises.
Fourth, the relationship between public opinion risk and corporate governance structure
1. The role of the board of directors
The board of directors of enterprises plays a key role in dealing with the risk of public opinion. An effective board of directors can find and deal with public opinion risks in time and protect the interests and reputation of enterprises. For example, the board of directors can strengthen the supervision of enterprise operation and management by establishing a sound internal supervision mechanism, and discover potential public opinion risk factors in time. In addition, the board of directors can also communicate with investors, the media and the public to convey the positive information of the enterprise and alleviate the impact of the public opinion crisis on the enterprise.
2. Responsibility of management
Management also bears an important responsibility in public opinion risk management. The management needs to report the operating conditions and potential risks of the enterprise to the board of directors in time to ensure that the board of directors can fully understand the public opinion risk of the enterprise. At the same time, the management also needs to formulate and implement effective public opinion management strategies, strengthen the management and control of internal information of enterprises, and prevent the leakage of negative information. In addition, the management also needs to maintain good communication with external stakeholders, respond to market concerns in a timely manner, and maintain the good image of the enterprise. For example, when a public opinion crisis occurs, the management can clarify the truth by releasing accurate information in time, stabilize market expectations, and reduce the impact of public opinion risks on enterprises.
3. The role of internal audit
Internal audit also plays an important role in public opinion risk management. Internal audit can find out the potential risk factors of public opinion through auditing the internal financial and operational activities of the enterprise and report to the management and the board of directors in time. For example, internal audit can audit the authenticity, completeness and accuracy of enterprise financial statements to prevent negative public opinion events such as financial fraud. At the same time, internal audit can also evaluate the effectiveness of the internal control system of enterprises, put forward suggestions for improvement, and enhance the ability of enterprises to resist the risk of public opinion. In addition, internal audit can also participate in the formulation and implementation of enterprise crisis response plans to ensure that enterprises can quickly take effective response measures when public opinion crisis occurs.
V. Interaction between public opinion risk and macroeconomic environment
1. The impact of the economic cycle
The economic cycle has an important influence on the formation and spread of public opinion risk. In the period of economic prosperity, enterprises are in good operating condition, market confidence is high, and the risk of public opinion is relatively low. However, during the economic recession, enterprises are faced with great operating pressure and are prone to various problems, such as financial difficulties and layoffs, which may lead to negative public opinion. At the same time, during the economic recession, some enterprises suffered losses or closed down due to poor management. These negative events caused public concern about the operating conditions of enterprises in the same industry through media reports and network communication, which further aggravated the public opinion risk of the remaining enterprises in the industry. In addition, the change of economic cycle will also affect investors’ risk preference and market confidence, and then affect the impact of public opinion risk on corporate financing costs.
2. The impact of the policy environment
The policy environment also has an important impact on the risk of public opinion. The government’s policy adjustment and regulatory measures may lead to the public opinion risk of enterprises. For example, the strengthening of the government’s environmental protection policy for enterprises may make some highly polluting enterprises face greater operational pressure, which may lead to negative public opinion.
3. The influence of market confidence
Market confidence plays a key role in the interaction between public opinion risk and macroeconomic environment. When the market confidence is insufficient, negative public opinion events may be amplified, which will have a greater impact on the financing cost and market performance of enterprises. For example, in the period of economic instability or market volatility, investors’ confidence in enterprises is relatively fragile, and any negative public opinion may lead to panic selling or financing difficulties. On the contrary, in the case of sufficient market confidence, even if there are some negative public opinions, investors may treat them more rationally and will not easily overreact to enterprises. Therefore, enterprises need to pay close attention to the changes of market confidence and adopt corresponding strategies in public opinion management to reduce the impact of public opinion risk on enterprises.
Sixth, the industry differences of public opinion risk
1. Public opinion sensitivity of different industries
There are significant differences in the sensitivity of different industries to public opinion risk. Some industries are more sensitive to the risk of public opinion because of their business nature and high social concern. For example, in the financial industry, food industry and medical industry, once negative public opinion appears in enterprises in these industries, it may quickly arouse public concern and doubt, which will have a significant impact on the financing cost and market performance of enterprises. Taking the financial industry as an example, the credibility of banks and financial institutions is the key to their survival and development. Any public opinion about financial fraud, poor risk management or poor management may trigger market panic, leading to a sharp drop in stock prices and a sharp rise in financing costs.
2. Transmission mechanism of industry public opinion risk
The risk transmission mechanism of public opinion in different industries is also different. In some industries that are highly dependent on market confidence and public image, such as tourism, hotels and aviation, negative public opinion may directly affect the income and cash flow of enterprises through changes in consumer behavior. For example, when there are security problems or negative public opinions in tourist destinations, consumers may choose other destinations, which will lead to a sharp drop in the income of local tourism enterprises, thus affecting their financing ability and financing cost. In some technology-intensive industries, such as science and technology and Internet industry, public opinion risk may be transmitted by affecting the technological innovation ability and market competitiveness of enterprises. For example, when technology leakage or public opinion of product quality problems occur in technology enterprises, it may lead to their disadvantage in market competition, and then affect their financing environment and financing cost.
VII. Future development trend of public opinion risk
1. The challenge of public opinion risk in the digital age
With the rapid development of digital technology, the spread speed and influence of public opinion risk will be further enhanced. The popularity of social media, network platform and mobile Internet makes information spread more rapidly and widely, and public opinion events can trigger global attention and discussion in a short time. For example, some companies’ inappropriate comments or behaviors posted on social media may quickly trigger public doubts and criticisms, which in turn will affect the financing costs and market performance of enterprises. Therefore, in the digital age, enterprises need to pay more attention to public opinion management, establish a sound public opinion monitoring and early warning mechanism, and timely discover and deal with public opinion risks.
2. The combination of artificial intelligence and public opinion management
The development of artificial intelligence technology provides new means and methods for public opinion management. Through artificial intelligence technology, enterprises can realize real-time monitoring and analysis of massive public opinion data and quickly identify potential public opinion risks. For example, using natural language processing technology, enterprises can analyze the emotion and identify the theme of text data on social media, and find the signs of negative public opinion in time. At the same time, artificial intelligence technology can also help enterprises formulate more accurate public opinion coping strategies, analyze and predict historical public opinion events through machine learning algorithms, and provide decision support for enterprises. For example, some enterprises have developed a public opinion early warning model by using artificial intelligence technology, which can predict the occurrence probability and influence degree of public opinion risk in advance, provide early warning information for enterprises, and help enterprises prepare in advance.
3. Long-term management of public opinion risk
The management of public opinion risk needs to pay attention not only to short-term crisis response, but also to long-term reputation building and risk prevention. Enterprises need to establish a good brand image and social image through continuous reputation management, and enhance public trust and recognition of enterprises. For example, enterprises can enhance their social reputation and public image by actively fulfilling their social responsibilities and strengthening communication and cooperation with stakeholders. At the same time, enterprises need to establish a sound risk management system, incorporate public opinion risk into the overall risk management framework of enterprises, and reduce the impact of public opinion risk on enterprises through institutionalized, standardized and normalized management measures. For example, enterprises can conduct public opinion risk assessment regularly, formulate public opinion management strategies and plans, and establish public opinion response teams and working mechanisms to ensure that they can respond quickly and effectively when public opinion crises occur.
In a word, public opinion risk has become one of the important factors affecting the financing cost of enterprises. Through in-depth analysis of the pricing mechanism, transmission mechanism and management strategy of public opinion risk, enterprises can better cope with public opinion crisis, reduce financing costs and enhance their market competitiveness. In the digital age, the spread speed and influence of public opinion risk will be further enhanced. Enterprises need to pay more attention to public opinion management, establish a sound public opinion early warning and response mechanism, and use new technical means such as artificial intelligence to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of public opinion management. At the same time, enterprises need to pay attention to long-term reputation building and risk prevention, and enhance their anti-risk ability and market competitiveness through continuous efforts. Future research needs to further quantify the elasticity coefficient of public opinion risk in different industries, provide more scientific theoretical support for accurate risk management of enterprises, and promote the scientific, standardized and professional development of public opinion management of enterprises.
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